Andrew:

The Principle of Restricted Choice

This article was taken from Andrew's What Should Have Happened Book

If one opponent plays a critical card in a suit, his partner is twice as likely to have the adjacent card in the same suit. This is because of the Principle of Restricted Choice (“PRC”) - a mathematical theory that was found to have relevance at the bridge table by Terence Reese. He first expounded the theory in his epic book “The Expert Game”, written in 1958 - an inspirational read for any ambitious player.

South Deals
N-S Vul

♠ A 10 5 3 2
♥ A Q 3
♦ A Q 3
♣ K Q

♠ Q 9 8
♥ 10 9 8 6
♦ 8 4 2
♣ 9 7 5

N
W		E
S

♠ J
♥ 5 4 2
♦ 10 9 6 5
♣ 10 8 4 3 2

♠ K 7 6 4
♥ K J 7
♦ K J 7
♣ A J 6

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	4 N	Pass	5 ♦
Pass	5 N	Pass	6 ♠
Pass	7 ♠	Pass	Pass
Pass

7 ♠ by South

North used the Blackwood convention (4NT) to ask for aces, and when his partner’s 5♦ response (one ace) revealed that all aces were present, he bid 5NT to ask for kings. South’s 6♠ response indicated possession of the three missing kings so North bid the Grand Slam.

West’s ♥10 lead ran to declarer’s ♥J and declarer cashed ♠K. East’s ♠J fell and declarer used PRC to deduce that West was now twice as likely to hold the adjacent card - ♠Q. Thus when he followed by leading ♠4 and West played ♠9, he crossed his fingers and inserted ♠10. East discarded a ♣ so he breathed a sigh of relief, cashed ♠A felling West’s ♠Q, and claimed his Grand Slam.

ANDREW’S TIP: When one opponent plays a critical card in a suit, play his partner to have the adjacent card in the same suit.

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Andrew:

The Principle of Restricted Choice