Andrew:

How to use the Losing Trick Count

Good news! Opener has supported your change-of-suit response. This means that trumps have been agreed and it is purely a question of level. By showing the strength of his hand with his supporting bid, that issue too is almost resolved.

Assuming you (responder) are unbalanced, use the Losing Trick Count (LTC). Follow these steps:

Ask yourself how many Losing Tricks (LTs) opener has taken you for. A one-over-one responder will be put with nine LTs; a two-over-one responder will be put with eight LTs.
Count up your LTs.*
For each LT you are better than advertised, bid up a level.

*Calculate LTs as follows: Assume the ace takes the first round of a suit; the king the second; the queen the third. How many of those do you lack, up to the number of cards held?

Exercise: the auction has begun 1 ♠-2 ♥-3 ♥. What next with:

Hand A	Hand B	Hand C
♠ 8 5 ♥ K J 6 4 3 ♦ J 8 6 4 ♣ A 7	♠ 5 ♥ A 9 6 4 3 2 ♦ K Q 4 3 ♣ Q 9	♠ 6 3 ♥ A Q 7 6 3 2 ♦ A Q 6 ♣ A 3

A) Pass. Eight Losing Tricks (♠AK, ♥AQ, ♦AKQ, ♣K) as advertised.
B) 4 ♥, Six Losing Tricks. (♠A ♥KQ, ♦A, ♣AK) Two better - but silly to bid 5 ♥ (no man's land). Play Safe and bid 4 ♥ (this weeks mistake).
C) 6♥. Five Losing Tricks (♠AK, ♥K, ♦K, ♣K)

North Deals
E-W Vul

♠	A J 9 7 6
♥	K 8 7 5
♦	A
♣	8 7 4

♠	8 4
♥	J 10
♦	10 8 6
♣	A K 10 5 3 2

N
W		E
S

♠	K Q 10 3 2
♥	Q
♦	J 9 7 5 2
♣	J 6

♠	5
♥	A 9 6 4 3 2
♦	K Q 4 3
♣	Q 9

West	North	East	South
	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	5 ♥1
Pass	Pass	Pass

Mistake. When the LTC tells you to bid 5♥/♠, you should bid 4♥/♠. What’s the point in bidding Five? None.

What happened
West led ♣A, East encouraging with ♣J (“throw high means aye”), and West followed with ♣K and ♣10. East trumped with ♥Q and, although declarer could overtump with ♥A, West’s ♥J10 was promoted into a trick. Down one.

West	North	East	South
	1 ♠	Pass	2 ♥
Pass	3 ♥	Pass	4 ♥
Pass	Pass	Pass

What should have happened
As above - but in 4 ♥. Game made.

If you remember just one thing...
When the Losing Trick Count tells you to bid 5 ♥/♠, settle safely for 4 ♥/♠.

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Andrew:

How to use the Losing Trick Count