Andrew:

How will your Trumps Split

Here are the odds of the various trump splits:

Your Trump Fit (no. of cards)

Seven

Eight

Nine

Ten

3-3 36%

4-2 48%

5-1 15%

6-0 1%

3-2 68%

4-1 28%

5-0 4%

2-2 40%

3-1 50%

4-0 10%

2-1 78%

3-0 22%

Don’t worry! You don’t have to remember those percentages. But it is helpful to learn the basic generality: namely that a missing odd number of cards rate to split as evenly as possible eg five missing cards normally split 3-2; whilst a missing even number of cards do not normally split evenly eg four missing cards are more likely to split 3-1 than 2-2 (this is because there are two 3-1 splits: three on the left or three on the right).

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South Deals
None Vul

♠	K 8 4
♥	K J 10 7
♦	Q 6 3 2
♣	8 6

♠	Q 10 9
♥	9 6 5
♦	K 8
♣	Q J 9 7 2

N
W		E
S

♠	J
♥	8 4 3 2
♦	A J 10 4
♣	K 10 4 3

♠	A 7 6 5 3 2
♥	A Q
♦	9 7 5
♣	A 5

West	North	East	South
			1 ♠
Pass	2 ♠1	Pass	3 ♠2
Pass	4 ♠3	Pass	Pass
Pass

Not enough strength to bid a new suit at the two-level (a point more and you’d have responded 2 ♦ as the cheaper of fours). Prefer 2 ♠ to 1 NT with three cards headed by a picture.
Although eight cards constitute a fit, the ninth (and tenth trumps) are invaluable. US world champion Jeff Meckstroth says that if your six card major receives support, you should usually bid game (or at least invite game, as here). The 25-point game guideline is relaxed with more than eight trumps.
Accepting the invitation with a maximum for his 6-9 point 2 ♠ bid.

4 ♠ by South

Lead: ♣ Q

West leads ♣ Q v 4 ♠ [the killer lead would be ♦ K, but how can West find that?]. As declarer, you win and should make some guesstimates. You’d guess trumps are 3-1 (a missing even number of cards does not rate to split evenly); and you’d guess hearts are 4-3 (a missing odd number of cards does rate to split as evenly as possible).

With the above expectations, you win ♣ A (East encouraging by playing ♣ 10) and play over to ♠ K and back to ♠ A East discarding (♣ 3) on the second round), revealing that, indeed, trumps are 3-1.

Leaving West’s master trump outstanding – the Rule of One – you now play out hearts. You cash ♥ A, overtake ♥ Q with dummy’s ♥ K, then follow with ♥ J, discarding a minor-suit loser. Both opponents follow (as expected) and you now lead the good ♥ 10, discarding another minor-suit loser. West ruffs, but you do not mind, as you have just two minor-suit losers remaining. 10 tricks and game made.

Note that without ♥ 10, the sequence of plays would be ♣ A, ♠ A, ♥ AQ, ♠ 2 to ♠ K, ♥ KJ.

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Andrew:

How will your Trumps Split

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